We all already know KICKFLIP died but I haven't written an article since then so there you go. As we are only 2 weeks from the end of regular season, power rankings are less important and I will be looking at likely playoff seeds. Note that these are based on matches up to and including cp_process week, and as such only include a couple results from cp_sunshine (due to update causing reschedules into this week). My predictions below are assuming ESEA takes the top 16 teams regardless of conference, as I've been told should happen. If they use the top 8 per conference, teams will be different (under current methodology I have 6 East teams and 10 Central). It also assumes that ESEA will ignore their own tiebreaker rules like they do every season, and use rounds-for. Many teams could still choke and ruin their playoff chances/seed.
update 7/13/2016: KICKFLIP has been revived under Wrech. Added under spoiler teams.
PREDICTED PLAYOFF SEEDS:
#1 - No Johns
Expected record 16-0. If they don't choke, they should hold the top seed now that The Westbrook Effect has 1 loss, as they have more rounds won than Every Villain Is Lemons. Very well-rounded team and a favourite of many to win open this season.
#2 - Every Villain Is Lemons
Expected record 16-0. Still no clear indicator of how they will do against Central Conference teams in playoffs, but finishing the season undefeated, including beating The Westbrook Effect, looks promising and gives them an excellent seed.
#3 - The Westbrook Effect
Expected record 15-1. A rough game (with 2 subs) against EVIL should be their only loss in the regular season; at worst they will lose to Mario Gang and take 6th or 7th seed. Being a regular scrim partner with No Johns makes them one of the most likely contenders for the top spot, along with the obvious malicious activity.
#4 - Milters
Expected record 14-2. There's still a risk of them losing to WuT dUdE or kawaii sexu desu desu, but if they come out on top as most people expect they will have a great playoff seed to close off their great regular season. A potent team that has really come into their own this season after going 10-6 last season.
#5 - Not Around Bears
Expected record 14-2. If my math is correct, they will have 1 fewer rounds won than Milters. They were always a top team, but have been playing better than ever since adding Moy on demoman.
#6 - Egg Salad Dressing
Expected record 14-2. They've looked a little rougher lately, including 2 recent wins that shouldn't have been as close as they were, so there is a risk of them getting a slightly lower playoff seed. They are practically guaranteed to finish top 7 though.
#7 - malicious activity
Expected record 14-2. Several forfeit wins gives them the fewest rounds won among 14-2 teams. If they play with former invite players dingo and aim they should be able to easily win open, depending on the roster they use other teams have a fair shot.
#8 - Hurricane Watch
Expected record 12-4. With no teams anticipated to finish 13-3 (in reality I'm sure at least 1 will, upsets happen every week), a cheesy forfeit loss to Danada Cry tonight doesn't impact their playoff seed. As long as they can field 6 there will be no issue beating their remaining low-mid opponents.
#9 - Mario Gang
Expected record 12-4. They seem to be a drastically improved team since the start of the season, and some of their losses in regular season might not mean much for post-season matchups. They believe they can beat The Westbrook Effect this week on sunshine, which sounds less outlandish after the latter's loss to EVIL on process but would only move them up 1 seed without changing matchups.
#10 - Bote 6v6
Expected record 11-5. Their most recent loss to kawaii sexu desu desu showed them struggling with 2 subs. They should have no problem winning their remaining games, but had probably hoped for a higher playoff seed.
#11 - System 2
Expected record 10-6. Here's where things get closer, with the rest of playoff teams likely finishing 10-6. System 2 looks like they will have the most rounds-for of those teams, and despite just coming off a 5 game lose streak should have no problem making playoffs.
#12 - Cant Predict Stupid
Expected record 10-6. Many close games makes Cant Predict Stupid the only 10-6 team remotely close to System 2 for rounds won. Note that their playoff chances depend on who their bye week makeup game is scheduled against, but having already played all the teams above them means they shouldn't have to worry too much.
#13 - WuT dUdE
Expected record 10-6. As with Cant Predict Stupid, they will need to win their bye week makeup game (either that or beat Milters, but the former is more likely). Massively outdamaging Bote 6v6 but still losing 4-2 shows that they are suffering coordination issues very late into the season, so they will need serious preparation to have a good shot in playoffs where raw dm won't suffice.
#14 - Bob-omb Squad
Expected record 10-6. Have a chance at 11 wins if they can beat Egg Salad Dressing, but after a 5-1 loss to Milters it's a long shot. Ether and mirrorman already have playoff experience, and Bob-omb Squad are one of the most likely sources of an upset win in the first round.
#15 - MintyFresh
Expected record 10-6. They aren't a bad team, but getting in as a low seed from the easier Eastern Conference means they will definitely struggle in playoffs. Still need to beat CantBelieveItsNotBuddha to get 10 wins.
#16 - Bobby and the Bobbettes
Expected record 10-6. Same case as Minty Fresh, must still beat a couple mid open teams to reach 10 wins and will have a hard time in playoffs.
UPDATE 7/13/2016: with KICKFLIP alive, Bobbettes no longer have a forfeit win there and might not have a shot at playoffs, don't want to rearrange teams until next week though.
POSSIBLE SPOILER TEAMS:
kawaii sexu desu desu - could get up to 11 wins, but with games remaining against Egg Salad Dressing and Milters it will be a challenge.
Bearly Alive - should finish 9-7, but can take the last seed if #15 or #16 do not get 10 wins.
white strawberry doggos - same as Bearly Alive. Must win all remaining games except against NAB (including 1 bye makeup not yet scheduled), which would give them the most rounds won of all 9-7 teams.
KICKFLIP - undead under former IM winner and invite scout Wrech. Will have to beat 2/3 of maL, TWE and EVIL to make playoffs, but could ruin playoff chances for Bobby and the Bobbettes even if they don't.
SOME UPCOMING MATCHES TO WATCH:
Bobby and the Bobbettes VS Gregs
Egg Salad Dressing VS Bob-omb Squad
The Westbrook Effect VS Mario Gang
Milters VS WuT dUdE
kawaii sexu desu desu VS Egg Salad Dressing
Short Bus All Stars VS CantBelieveItsNotBuddha
malicious activity VS KICKFLIP
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